The Technology Adoption Life-cycle And The Social Internet

by Darren McLaughlin

Everyone get’s excited about new technology. But one thing they might forget, is that technology, and more specifically, technology adoption, are not new. Earth-shattering technology has been released to the masses for decades now, and not all of it is a big hit. Even if you have a great idea, it doesn’t mean it will spread. Why? Because not all technology products will “Cross the chasm”. How many of the currently hyped ideas will be able to bridge the divide between the early adopters and the pragmatists who make up the bulk of consumers?

Geoffrey A. Moore attempted to quantify this behavior in a subject he called the Technology Adoption Life-Cycle, and he thoroughly covered the topic in his 1991 bestseller “Crossing the Chasm”. Let’s look at the graphical representation of the “chasm” as outlined in the book.

This chasm has been the death of many technology products. You can look back and think of once hot-selling products like the Iomega Zip Drive, and realize what happens when a company just can’t make it across the chasm. It’s not a pretty sight.

Which companies need to cross the chasm right now?

The “Web 2.0 companies” are facing this same hurdle that Iomega faced. Sites like Digg have rabidly loyal fans, but nearly all of them are eithe “innovators” or “early adopters”. Either they love technology, or they’re there to try and profit from it. How far into the major groups of pragmatists has Digg or Reddit gone?

In order for the Web 2.0 companies to make it across the chasm, they’ll have to do something to ingratiate themselves into the hearts and minds of the true masses, and not just the true hardcore techies who love new and cool things. This will be the test for all social websites. They need critical mass, and they have to be leaders in the market to do it. The next six months will show us a lot about which companies can actually do it, and which ones will be next year’s “Zip Drive”.

Which companies do you think can cross the chasm?